Gooossshhh!

OFFICIALY my demonstration account is already wiped out..

My Risk Parameters were crushed some 450 Pips ago on EUR/USD positions and around 80$ @ Gold.

I had a plan to hedge but changed my plans in-between after opening the hedges and got hooked to my belief that the fundamental factors of the US economy never ever could allow the dollar to rally that much in the last few weeks.

Adding to these immense faults ,I had Price action screaming at me to short the Euro at around 1.5800. I even had a short open but closed it for a lousy 70pips because of the foregoing argument.

In retrospect I could have handled everything in a logic manner as my plans were prepared and sound.But overwhelmingly I feel that one reason stood out the most and that was that pleasure and pain of just being in the market.Like a Pavlovian dog or like a mouse trapped in an lab,I had to get my daily dose and ignored clear signs which were against my “belief”!

To this subject let me quote Jesse Livermore once again from Chapter V of his “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”

“And right here let me say one thing:  After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:  It never was my thinking that made the big money for me.  It always was my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!  It is no trick at all to be right on the market.  You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.  I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.  And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it.  Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.  I found it one of the hardest things to learn.  But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.  It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”

I think that I can say without much ego-polishing that I can identify the nature of fundamental trends quite early and my study of price action allows me to see good entry points to make use of them and should be able to make some good money with my forecasts. But being right and then trading right is an entirely different game.Patience is the key..and I have to learn it ..the best way is pain isn`t it ?

For example through my study of monetary history of hundreds of years of mankind marketplaces, I “knew” (very determined) that gold would go to 1k/oz and still “know” that gold will go to new highs a short few years from here.(Preserving wealth and/or enriching it..depending on your leverage)

But life is patient with me it seems and did not allow me to invest money “one cannot afford to loose”.Because now I know I would have lost it..and being right and loosing money is ,in my humble opinion, the worst pain a trader/investor can feel in his breast.

okay lot’s of I’s here :D Please wish me patience for the next try..I need 6 positive month before going live..

I will wait some time for my margin call (which will eventually occur) and then plan for the second public try.

Have a great weekend! I will ;)

Here some statistics for anyone interested..around 50% win/loss ratio in the middle of my second year is not that bad ,isn’t it?

…(of course there are still positions open..maybe they come back ;)

nearly 6 Month of Trading here->

Click Pic to enlarge

I made a quick 95pips on a GPB/JPY short today,but my Gold and EUR/USD positions are still way in the red..

After the NFP and Unemployment Rate are now priced in and the Euro showed some strenght after the first sell-off on those news, I added another EUR/USD position.

The longtermtrend is UP and the Cost of bailing out the US Financial System will drive the Euro much higher soon .(in my humble Oppinion!)

I also search for Options to add to my Gold positions..but this could need some more time.

Have a great weekend!

The markets are calm as far as I am concerned!

German IFO Index numbers @ 97.5 vs 100.2 expected.

UK June Retail Sales -3.9% vs -2.5% expected.

“LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Retail sales in the UK plunged in June by their biggest amount since records began in 1986, but inflationary pressures, particularly within food, continue to mount, official figures showed today.The office for National Statistics said retail sales in June dropped by 3.9 percent, more than reversing the upwardly-adjusted 3.6 percent increase recorded for May.”

And New Zealand unexpectedly cut their Interest Rates down to 8% last night. But i closed my shorts there already..

My Open Positions are heavily in the red AND I prepared a plan to hedge them  (Gold and EUR/USD)..but as I am an Dollar bear for years I am very sure the longtermtrend will help me out of this “little” hole..I am waiting for the weekend before deciding any further..

I wait for several trades on the dailys..

Those potential Setups include Gold,F-Dax,GPB/CHF,AUD/CAD,EUR/USD

Here the charts  ->

AUD/CAD -> Potential Short

EUR/USD-> Potential Short

GPB/CHF -> Potential Long

F-Dax ->

Gold-> ( There is an open long position which will be hedged if I short)

My Cable positions got stopped out @ 1.9800!

Original Position GPB/USD +130 Pips

First Add-on +65 Pips

Second Add-On -46 Pips

On Friday I made 5 Trades.

Two Gold Long  Positions @ 925.90 and 922.00 which got stopped out..

One EUR/JPY Long @ 163.84 got also stopped out.

I have a Long @ GPB/JPY and CHF/JPY still open.

My GPB/JPY Position is double the average Position Size as there is great Price Action in my humble opinion.

GPB/JPY 4H Chart->

I know i did again not find the time to post my News Wrapup but hey, I am an freaky undisciplined blogger *g*

My GPB/CHF Long got stopped out!

(i had a position also open @ USD/CHF which i did not publish here and got also stopped out.)

When u look at the charts now price went my way @ GPB/CHF :(  i lost because of a few pips.. No Problem..:D

My Cable Position went great and i doubled it on the way up!

Also Better then expected Retail Sales gave this rally a push!

( Retail Sales -0.2% vs -0.5% expected)

Original Position +165 Pips

Add-On +101 Pips

Tonight I will do a News Roundup ! I feel i did not do one for to long and also i will begin working on my Tools Page where i show all the (mostly free) Programs I use to stay  Up-to-Date and manage this information.

Have a nice day!

 EDIT: i added another position on the cable and move all stops to 1.9800!

I longed GPB/CHF @ 2.0255 with SL @ 2.0180 and TS of 45Pips.

I also bought GPB/USD @ 1.9671 with an SL @ 1.9608 and TS of 35 Pips.

The Trailing Stops are because i will leave in 1 hour and cannot monitor those positions !

I did 2 trades today..Long GPB/CHF and long GPB/JPY

Both got stopped out.I won`t take any other trades today!

EDIT:  okay i won`t say “i won`t take any trades today” again ;)

Sometimes opportunities form when u don`t expect them..i plan to long GPB/CHF after the current 4H bar closes!

I Closed all trades and in doing so finish this trading day!

Have a good one! ;)

I added a Gold position @ 915.45  and opened a long GPB/JPY @ 204.02.

Positions actual status as follow ->

Original Gold -> +16.55$

Gold add-on + 5.85$

GPB/USD +34 Pips

GPB/JPY +44 Pips

I planed to pyramid on gold and gpb/usd but I think about closing them and taking my profits off the table.

Price action is not in favor of continuation of those shortterm trends.

Of course if they continue I can get in @ an better price again..

I will take another 20minutes to decide on this..