I am really very very busy for a long period of time and mostly “blog” via my facebook profile because it’s so easy and fast..but i will continue this blog..but dunno when ;)

For people interested in contacting me &or following my postings my facebook addy is Frederik Caetan Alexander ..

To speak about the markets..I am still bearish !!  the bottom is not here yet! imho..governments can only prolong the pain..and they can only do this as long as the ppl are willing to pay this enourmous bill..and I am speaking of all people in all countries..

Let’s see how it unfolds…

Gooossshhh!

OFFICIALY my demonstration account is already wiped out..

My Risk Parameters were crushed some 450 Pips ago on EUR/USD positions and around 80$ @ Gold.

I had a plan to hedge but changed my plans in-between after opening the hedges and got hooked to my belief that the fundamental factors of the US economy never ever could allow the dollar to rally that much in the last few weeks.

Adding to these immense faults ,I had Price action screaming at me to short the Euro at around 1.5800. I even had a short open but closed it for a lousy 70pips because of the foregoing argument.

In retrospect I could have handled everything in a logic manner as my plans were prepared and sound.But overwhelmingly I feel that one reason stood out the most and that was that pleasure and pain of just being in the market.Like a Pavlovian dog or like a mouse trapped in an lab,I had to get my daily dose and ignored clear signs which were against my “belief”!

To this subject let me quote Jesse Livermore once again from Chapter V of his “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”

“And right here let me say one thing:  After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:  It never was my thinking that made the big money for me.  It always was my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!  It is no trick at all to be right on the market.  You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.  I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.  And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it.  Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.  I found it one of the hardest things to learn.  But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.  It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”

I think that I can say without much ego-polishing that I can identify the nature of fundamental trends quite early and my study of price action allows me to see good entry points to make use of them and should be able to make some good money with my forecasts. But being right and then trading right is an entirely different game.Patience is the key..and I have to learn it ..the best way is pain isn`t it ?

For example through my study of monetary history of hundreds of years of mankind marketplaces, I “knew” (very determined) that gold would go to 1k/oz and still “know” that gold will go to new highs a short few years from here.(Preserving wealth and/or enriching it..depending on your leverage)

But life is patient with me it seems and did not allow me to invest money “one cannot afford to loose”.Because now I know I would have lost it..and being right and loosing money is ,in my humble opinion, the worst pain a trader/investor can feel in his breast.

okay lot’s of I’s here :D Please wish me patience for the next try..I need 6 positive month before going live..

I will wait some time for my margin call (which will eventually occur) and then plan for the second public try.

Have a great weekend! I will ;)

Here some statistics for anyone interested..around 50% win/loss ratio in the middle of my second year is not that bad ,isn’t it?

…(of course there are still positions open..maybe they come back ;)

nearly 6 Month of Trading here->

Click Pic to enlarge

It seems I managed to get back to breakeven with the demonstration account (okay there are some negative open positions ,but this problem should be solved within the next week and End with about 8%+ IFmy plan works out).

It was an hard struggle..especially to loose around 25% in the first weeks ..but i kept it up and will add more gains in the future. I hope this shows anyone interested in trading that u should never judge your performance in days or weeks..u need months of trading ur strategy to see if it works or not..DON’T GIVE UP EARLY BECAUSE U HAD SOME BAD WEEKS as 75% of new traders do! This profession needs years of sweat & blood !

Here my favorite trading quote for such loosing streaks ->

“My centre is collapsing, my right is in retreat. Situation excellent: I attack!”

Marechal Foch, Battle of the Marne

And I KNOW i did not update anything yet on the empty blog pages ;)

Time will come for this!

Have a great weekend!

Analyzing my “watchlist” ( 4 posts ago) I was right on all of them besides aud/cad (which did not go anywhere)..even if i could only squeeze 60pips from the EUR/USD movement..but the longterm trend for gold and eur/usd are up so I am happy with what i got!

The Short squeeze in equitites especially Dow Jones and DAX over the last 4days was VERY tradeable ..gosh..i should start trading those sometime in the future..!

Heyho there folks!

I did not post for about 5 weeks now as i had simply no motivation ..this and some other stressful factors showed me that to blog consistenly and overall interesting stuff one need a bit more than just “spare time”..

I hope to continue soon and implent all the changes i have prepared (graphical and editorial).

I DID however continue to trade this account and growed it somewhat ( actual is ~13% from ~25%  6 weeks ago).

Also I am joining the second trading group on my endeavor of learning.

So I am now a member of both “The James16Group” and “Jackos Turtles”.

To speak a bit about the markets..i am expecting the ECB to hike rates the coming week (beware the markets already price in the hike) and the conditions of MBIA ,AMBAC and the overall “state of affairs” is a affirmation for me that the bulk of this CRISIS is still way before us.

I am Bullish the EUR/USD,GOLD,AUD/USD,SILVER !

Crude Oil is a Riddle for me at the moment..so i am watching and waiting there. If it breaks out north it should reach 150$ soon but otherwise are the demand concerns worldwide worth to factor in that there could be a cruel slide before us!

Thats all for now..I really hope to post soon again and get blogging higher on my priority list !

May u live in interesting times!

Sorry fellows,

the past weekend i had to visit 3 different birthday events and that meant i was at partys nonstop day and night since friday. But it was worth it absolutely. Made some great new friends.

That means I won`t do an weekly recap.This evening I will post my humble “forecasts” for this week.

headz up guys ’n gals !

Okay so far so good.

I am in week 3 of Trading this Account and week 4 of writing this blog.

First of all trading in “public” is something different then to trade in private, because I feel much more accountable for my trades and hopefully this will hold me back from over trading,trigger happiness and not thinking through my strategies and not planing my trades.

This blog is being written to get myself working on what has to be accomplished to succeed in this business.I know this is maybe the hardest and most challenging business one can choose as profession.

I really have many plans for this place of mine and hope one day i will not only aggregate News from my favorite sources , but instead  write my own articles and analysis of what’s going on in this world of Markets,Humans and Governments.

Also i plan to go live as soon as I traded 4 Profitable months in a row and feel ready for the challenge.Until then I can save my money and let it grow to a decent size.

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Now for the changes i think i must do ,to get this piece of the web managed for myself to better keep it updated,cleaned and informative. Also for the convenience of my audience i will apply a few things.

I will only Post 4H Trades and higher from now on.Sometimes i might use 1H Charts to show my entrys with more detail.

Daytrading will be done from time to time but will not be documented here besides in the Real-time statement.

I will only note the weekly percentage change from now on.

Counting pips is not that useful as I change my position size with every new trade depening on stoploss and equity. But i will add my pipscount for the day to most end-of-day comments. 

Every Week there is a Weekly Review of the past week and a Weekly Wrapup of the coming week which includes my Big Picture View.

This includes my personal estimation and sentiment about currency pairs & commodities which are on my watch list.

Of course ,those people following this project since start have surely seen that I am not the most disciplined blogger & trader around . But I know there is a way to get there ;)  Time,sweat and blood as always in climbing the stairs to achievement.

In future i will only pick out the 4–5 best of my daily readings and comment on them.But i will try to do this every trading day.

Regarding my trading strategy. I am not ready to explain my reasoning for taking trades in depth yet. There are a few reasons for this, especially that I am myself still learning and I learned the most in a special group on which I will elaborate in future. Also i don`t plan to sell any stuff here like a system or the “holy grail” because there is no holy grail in trading besides the face in the mirror. 

I simply want to show my struggle to become a pro and log my trading ;) Let`s see if I can get there within a few short years lol 

Okay enough bragging for tonight! Have a good one wherever you are!