For people interested in contacting me &or following my postings my facebook addy is Frederik Caetan Alexander ..
To speak about the markets..I am still bearish !! the bottom is not here yet! imho..governments can only prolong the pain..and they can only do this as long as the ppl are willing to pay this enourmous bill..and I am speaking of all people in all countries..
Let’s see how it unfolds…
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I am in full fledged weeks of stress ;)
I just went here to leave a few words!
Things are very very ugly out there..prepare urself for the biggest financial crisis/crash in the history of the world..get out take all ur cash..buy gold,silver,gas and ammuniton and cigarettes.
I wish everyone as much luck as he/she can get..
and begin to buy again when blood is flooding the streets..
this is REALLY unprecedented..
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Breaking News: Lehman To Be Acquired by Tooth Fairy
The market responded with enthusiasm to reports that the Tooth Fairy has agreed to acquire Lehman. The purchase price has not yet been determined and will be set by Dick Fuld wishing upon a star, clicking his heels three times, and being transported back to that magical place where Lehman still sells for over $70 per share.
In related news, Lehman has agreed to sell all of its level III capital, including CDOs, ABSs, pet rocks, baseball cards, slightly used condoms, and credit default swaps written by MBIA and Ambac. Lehman’s level III capital will be acquired for 150% of its face value by Tinkerbell, who will carry it off to Neverland to be fed to a crocodile. Lehman is financing 90% of the acquisition at an interest rate that has not been announced; Tinkerbell’s up-front payment consists of a handful of pixie dust, three crickets, and a bullfrog. Analyst Dick Bove estimates that the bullfrog could eventually be transformed into three princes and a pumpkin coach. The deal gives Lehman no recourse to any of Tinkerbell’s assets other than the Level III capital. If Tinkerbell defaults, Lehman’s successor entity will stick its hand down the crocodile’s throat and attempt to get it to regurgitate. The firm’s historical value-at-risk analysis shows that sticking your hand down a crocodile’s throat is completely safe.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson issued a statement: “I am delighted that SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Fairies) continue to express confidence in the terrific values represented by American financial institutions. As I have been saying since August of 2007, this shows that the crisis is now over.”
Meanwhile, the SEC has announced an investigation of mean, evil, bad short-seller David Einhorn. While out for a beer with a friend, Einhorn reportedly suggested that the Tooth Fairy does not exist and that wishing upon a star is not a wholly reliable price discovery mechanism. Christopher Cox, chairman of the SEC, said, “Vicious rumors attacking the Tooth Fairy will not be tolerated. Our entire financial system and indeed the American way of life depend on the Tooth Fairy and wishing upon a star. How else could one value level III capital appropriately?” The SEC is reportedly planning to set up re-education camps for short-sellers.
]]>Economic Capital is as calculated by IRA. All figures in $000 :
Source: TheBigPicture
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And additional I want to say that I am sorry for not posting very much! ;)
So little Time :( But i am Long the EUR/USD ,GPB/USD and my strategy runs allong the thinking that the USD bounce is over and GOLD will soon show it again..I only wait for good for entrys..
Have a great Day
]]>Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the Spanish prime minister, sought to address the “stagnation and slowdown” of the economy when he announced a package of 24 measures designed to lessen their effect.
Spain is among the European countries that, like Britain, have been hardest hit by the kock on effects of the economic downturn and credit crunch in the United States.
Mr Zapatero made the rare move of convening his cabinet during August, when Spaniards traditionally take their annual leave and Madridrelos escape the stifling summer heat of the capital. He called the meeting to approve a raft of measures that include the elimination of inheritance tax and the injection of finance into state housing projects.
The move came a day after figures showed that second quarter growth dropped to 0.1 per cent, its lowest level since 1993 when Spain emerged from its last recession and housing crisis.
“We face a situation of economic stagnation and a steep slowdown,” Mr Zapatero said after chairing the cabinet meeting and after cutting short his family holiday in the remote Doñana national park. “The government is working to make sure that the economy recovers as soon as possible.”
The cabinet approved the provision of a 20 billion euro (£15.9 billion) finance package in a bid to stimulate the economy and avoid a looming recession.
The package also aims to simplify environmental plans for public works and cuts red tape for small and medium-sized businesses. It will also boost railroad infrastructure, launch a partial privatisation of the airport system and allow longer opening hours for retailers.
The Spanish government’s new measures are in addition to an 18 billion euro spending plan announced in April aimed at reviving the economy.
But the conservative opposition have accused Zapatero, who was re-elected to a second term in March, of being too slow to take action on the economy and branded the government’s extraordinary cabinet meeting as nothing more than a publicity stunt.
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..great article..great analysis..great source..
Recession is spreading faster than Bird Flu…
We have reached a disturbing moment in financial markets, where the noise to signal ratio across all asset classes is probably at an all time high, the August effect notwithstanding. Never has it been more important to adopt a strategic mindset to investing, rather than stampeding after the latest momentum trade without a shred of conviction. I’ve been a skeptic on economic decoupling, and had bet the right way on the dramatic reversal in the dollar (where I strongly suspect we saw discreet US intervention last week, possibly as a quid pro quo to the Gulf States/Saudi for maintaining their dollar pegs after recent visits by Hank Paulson). I’d advised a short on oil and other commodities, where the deteriorating outlook triggered a sudden slump, but I fear that equity markets are still dangerously complacent as to the risk of the brakes slamming on global growth. We will probably reach a tipping point in the next couple of months when the grim outlook for 2009 becomes inescapable and triggers steep earnings downgrades for non-financials and potentially a market panic. I predicted months ago that Japan and much of the Eurozone would be in recession by year end, and that China would see growth slump to mid-high single digits; these views are now becoming consensus. Countries from Estonia to Denmark are now officially in recession, while Spain, Italy, the UK and Canada are a one way bet. Overall, growth is slowing faster and more widely that I had feared, making recent IMF global growth forecasts of 3.9% in 2009 (down from 5% in 2007) look wildly optimistic. I’d take half that and be grateful. Deflation will be the new buzzword before long. The debate as to whether the US is technically in recession using NBER criteria is sterile (I believe one effectively began 6-8 months ago); the key is that recent GDP numbers have stayed positive only thanks to net exports, and exports will now come under pressure as emerging market investment spending slows. Meanwhile, we are at the beginning of a structural downshift in US consumption; personal consumption as a % of GDP reached over 71% in recent years driven by equity withdrawal from housing, against an average from 1975-2000 of 67%; expect at least a reversion to that mean. Policymakers are running out of options; only 10-20% of the recent tax rebate checks were spent, the Fed balance sheet is stretched to its regulatory limit and full of toxic credit sludge swapped by investment banks who are then recycling those Treasuries to feed the leverage appetite of their critically profitable hedge fund clients. The Fed has become the biggest Prime Broker in the world by default. Subsidising overconsumption and overtrading just make the core US economic imbalances worse; ultimately, I’d expect a new ‘New Deal’ involving huge infrastructure/energy diversification spending and $1trn plus deficits to fund it. Having sucessfully traded extreme oversold conditions in financials since mid July, capital preservation will be the priority in the next few months. I will be closing out all my equity positions in into what’s left of the Bear Rally, and buying deep out of the money equity index puts (options are surprisingly cheap given the low VIX), as an insurance policy. If I had to stay invested, consumer staples and healthcare should outperform further. A near term Bull Trap rally in commodities is likely, before the reality of slumping demand in 2009 sees the move I’ve forecast to about half peak levels for most. Agricultural commodities are an exception, having already corrected up to 40% and with structural demand underestimated (see Food: What’s the Chinese for Big Mac?). It is quite possible that incoming housing data will flatter to deceive on the upside, as foreclosure criteria have been relaxed by many banks under regulatory and political pressure, but I’m concerned that the Superprime mortgage market is the next blowup as white collar job losses grow. I’m no Gold fan as regular readers will know, and recent technical damage to the bull case is brutal, but at around $800 those so inclined may well take advantage of the steep selloff to profit from a spike in risk aversion in the Autumn. The wreckage of a real free-fall panic, creating some bargain valuations, will throw up wonderful opportunities for a cash rich investor.
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OFFICIALY my demonstration account is already wiped out..
My Risk Parameters were crushed some 450 Pips ago on EUR/USD positions and around 80$ @ Gold.
I had a plan to hedge but changed my plans in-between after opening the hedges and got hooked to my belief that the fundamental factors of the US economy never ever could allow the dollar to rally that much in the last few weeks.
Adding to these immense faults ,I had Price action screaming at me to short the Euro at around 1.5800. I even had a short open but closed it for a lousy 70pips because of the foregoing argument.
In retrospect I could have handled everything in a logic manner as my plans were prepared and sound.But overwhelmingly I feel that one reason stood out the most and that was that pleasure and pain of just being in the market.Like a Pavlovian dog or like a mouse trapped in an lab,I had to get my daily dose and ignored clear signs which were against my “belief”!
To this subject let me quote Jesse Livermore once again from Chapter V of his “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”
“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”
I think that I can say without much ego-polishing that I can identify the nature of fundamental trends quite early and my study of price action allows me to see good entry points to make use of them and should be able to make some good money with my forecasts. But being right and then trading right is an entirely different game.Patience is the key..and I have to learn it ..the best way is pain isn`t it ?
For example through my study of monetary history of hundreds of years of mankind marketplaces, I “knew” (very determined) that gold would go to 1k/oz and still “know” that gold will go to new highs a short few years from here.(Preserving wealth and/or enriching it..depending on your leverage)
But life is patient with me it seems and did not allow me to invest money “one cannot afford to loose”.Because now I know I would have lost it..and being right and loosing money is ,in my humble opinion, the worst pain a trader/investor can feel in his breast.
okay lot’s of I’s here :D Please wish me patience for the next try..I need 6 positive month before going live..
I will wait some time for my margin call (which will eventually occur) and then plan for the second public try.
Have a great weekend! I will ;)
Here some statistics for anyone interested..around 50% win/loss ratio in the middle of my second year is not that bad ,isn’t it?
…(of course there are still positions open..maybe they come back ;)
nearly 6 Month of Trading here->
Click Pic to enlarge
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Jesse Livermore
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China Tightens Currency Controls to Curb Inflows
Data Revision Reveals Almost Half of NYMEX Crude Oil Futures and Options Positions Are Held By Speculators
American International Group Inc., the biggest U.S. insurer by assets, fell the most since going public in 1969 after writing down more than $11 billion of holdings and saying it won’t rule out raising capital.
Jobless Claims Rose to Their Highest Level in Six Years
And here one of the best Articles i have seen since a long time->
via FreetheMarketMan
Getting Closer to Debasing the Currency
by Thorsten Polleit, who is Honorary Professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management.
I really love Rothbards Book! It`s an must for everyone interested in economics!! GO BUY IT!
and finally please watch this amazing trailer->
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